@Article{CavalcanteSampDuarSant:2023:ImClCh,
               author = "Cavalcante, Arn{\'o}bio de Mendon{\c{c}}a Barreto and Sampaio, 
                         Augusto C{\'e}sar Praciano and Duarte, Aryberg S. and Santos, 
                         Marcos Aur{\'e}lio Ferreira dos",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of 
                         epiphytic cacti in the Caatinga biome, Brazil",
              journal = "Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ci{\^e}ncias",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "95",
               number = "2",
                pages = "e20200904",
             keywords = "Climatic refuge, maxent, modeling, seasonally dry tropical 
                         forest.",
             abstract = "The Caatinga biome is the largest dry tropical forest region in 
                         South America as well as one of the most vulnerable regions in the 
                         world to the climate changes forecast for this century. Climate 
                         forecasts for the biome include increased air temperature, reduced 
                         rainfall and aridization. This biome does not have a homogeneous 
                         landscape; instead it has several rainforest enclaves. This 
                         article describes a study to model the potential distribution of 
                         four epiphytic cactus species (Epiphyllum phyllanthus (L.) Haw., 
                         Rhipsalis floccosa Salm-Dyck ex Pfeiff., Rhipsalis lindbergiana K. 
                         Schum and Rhipsalis russellii Britton \& Rose.) in the biome 
                         under future climate scenarios and traces out a prognosis for the 
                         enclaves and the biome. For that purpose, we used the MaxEnt 
                         modeling method, considering two future time intervals (2041-2060 
                         and 2061-2080) and the interval 1961-1990 for the current 
                         situation, with the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The projections for 
                         future potential distribution showed a spatial contractions 
                         greater than 88% found in the areas of high potential presence for 
                         the target species throughout the biome and in all the scenarios. 
                         The results strengthen the expectation of aridization in the 
                         Caatinga biome, with the loss or shrinkage of rainforest enclaves 
                         as time progresses.",
                  doi = "10.1590/0001-3765202320200904",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202320200904",
                 issn = "0001-3765",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "index.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "13 maio 2024"
}